Oscar predictions after the nominations

Best Picture: Emilia Perez

I am sorry, it just makes sense. Only Emilia Perez, Anora and The Brutalist have the Director, Screenplay and Editing nominations needed to win Picture. There's no excuse for Conclave missing Director or Wicked missing Screenplay and DGA or A Complete Unknown missing Editing. The Brutalist is The Power of the Dog 2.0 and Anora is too light and unimportant. Emilia Perez wouldn't win in most years, but in this field... It's the most nominated foreign language film ever. The signs couldn't be more obvious.

Best Director: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

The Editing nomination for The Brutalist is a very good sign that it's strong enough to pull this win off. But Audiard is still very dangerous, Emilia Perez is stronger at the American guilds than The Brutalist and it's just as strong at BAFTA and the Globes.

Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

A Complete Unknown overpeformed and he will likely win SAG. If he wouldn't be so young, this would be more obvious. Brody will have BAFTA and the Globe, so I am expecting this to be a nail-biter.

Best Actress: Demi Moore, The Substance

If she wins SAG, it's over. BUT I have a feeling that it won't be so easy. If the race becomes a mess, I can see Torres pulling an upset at the final hour. She might be like CODA in Picture, arriving at the last possible moment into the race and winning everything she's nominated for, the Oscar and the Globe. Now that I'm Still Here is nominated in Picture, the voters will watch the movie. And that might be enough for an upset.

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

If there was a clear alternative, he would be in trouble. But there really isn't.

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

I know people want this to be an exciting race between her and Grande, but she's sweeping.

Best Original Screenplay: Anora

There a scenario where The Brutalist somehow takes this if it's very strong, but this should be a very easy call.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave

Be very afraid of Emilia Perez. Conclave missed Director and Cinematography, it's barely in the BP Top5, while EP might be winning Picture. If Emilia Perez wouldn't a musical, it would be the frontrunner here.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist

Should be a very easy tech win. Classic Director + Cinematography duo win.

Best Editing: Emilia Perez

Only two movies have the important Sound nomination, EP and Wicked. And EP has that crime thriller thing going on which is usual associated with quick cuts. The Brutalist is too long, Anora and Conclave aren't what traditionally wins this category.

Best Production Design: Wicked

With the way Wicked overperformed, this race is done.

Best Costume Design: Wicked

This is over since Wicked premiered.

Best Makeup: The Substance

It will be one of the most celebrated wins of this category ever.

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two

This has been locked for almost a year now.

Best Sound: Wicked

Dune lost all of its steam and Wicked overperformed, so I am expecting an upset. Wicked has the live singing narrative going on, that should be enough against a very weak Dune.

Best Score: The Brutalist

I am not 100% confident in it, Emilia Perez can win this on its best day and Conclave has a more traditional score, but The Brutalist should take this just for the opening alone.

Best Song: El Mal, Emilia Perez

Basically a second win for Saldana.

Best International Feature: Emilia Perez

Do not get your hopes up about I'm Still Here.

Best Animated Feature: The Wild Robot

Very close race between The Wild Robot and Flow. I am going with The Wild Robot because of the Sound nomination, but Flow might still upset.

I know that Emilia Perez winning Picture without Director and/or Screenplay is weird, but this is a weird year. And I don't see any signs that it's divisive, the backlash is only an online thing. The industry loves this movie.