Anora and Emilia Perez make the most sense as Best Picture winners after DGA, SAG and the Globes
Stats break every year, so this post won't be about them, more like about the general vibe of the precursors.
So why do I think that the other three top 5 BP contenders don't make much sense anymore...
The Brutalist: the SAG snubs killed it. It's as simple as that. At best it will be a repeat of The Power of the Dog. Too long, too weird. It can win Best Director on its best day, but the universal love isn't there. The movie is a big acting showcase for three actors, yet only one of them made it in at SAG. If that's not an indication of industry rejection from the middlebrow crowd, I don't know what is. Not to mention that its underperformance in Editing is also a very bad sign for such a long movie.
Wicked: Top Gun Maverick made it into DGA. So did Barbie. This one didn't. So it's pretty much over. This is a big blockbuster musical, not a small indie like CODA, it just simply can't win without a DGA nomination. Not to mention that it will likely miss BAFTA Best Film.
Conclave: This isn't a Best Picture winner. I know you want to compare it to Spotlight, but that movie, while being a procedural drama, had a far bigger emotional impact. Nobody says "Conclave made me cry". It's also not winning SAG Cast after that Supporting Actress snub. I don't see how this movie suddenly starts winning Best Picture precursors. The passion isn't there. This is like BlacKkKlansman in 2018 or The Imitation Game in 2014. It's winning Screenplay by default, and that will be its only award.
So that leaves us with Anora and Emilia Perez. Anora "flopped" at the Globes, but it wouldn't be the first time that the Globes missed the boat on the BP winner. Anora has all the important nominations it needs, and it can still easily win PGA and DGA, maybe even BAFTA.
Emilia Perez is also doing extremely well for a foreign language film. I feel people here forget how hard it is for a foreign language film to perform well at the American guilds. Emilia Perez will likely have the largest nomination haul ever for foreign language film at the American guilds, and probably at the Oscars as well. I know many of you don't want to hear this, but based on the nominations and wins so far, Emilia Perez is the closest to a Best Picture frontrunner in this split race. It can win BAFTA Best Film, DGA and maybe even PGA. The signs are all there.