Is Russia Really a Threat to NATO and the UK?

Alright, I keep seeing people panic about Russia being some massive threat to NATO and the UK, either now or in the near future and that war is on the way. But honestly, why? I just don’t see it.

Is Russia Actually as Strong as People Think?

When they rolled into Ukraine, they had T-90 tanks, Su-35 jets, and modern weapons systems. And yet, they’ve lost so much gear that they’re now dragging 60-year-old tanks out of storage and salvaging Soviet scrapyards for parts. These mothballed pieces of equipment are finite and will not be replaced again if the Russian industrial machine beefs up military production.

If Russia’s struggling this badly against Ukraine, a country with a fraction of NATO’s resources, how exactly are they supposed to deal with NATO’s air power, drone swarms and next-gen weapons?

And then there’s logistics. Their supply lines keep collapsing, their trucks are falling apart (the whole tyre charade and relying on China to keep their trucks moving) and their troops are running out of food and water miles from their own border. If they can’t even keep their own war machine running in a neighbouring country with a huge land border, how are they supposed to take on the entirety of NATO across multiple fronts?

Can Russia Even Afford It?

Russia’s economy is smaller than Italy’s. Sanctions are choking them off from things like microchips and precision tools, the kind of stuff they need to make modern weapons. They’re already haemorrhaging cash trying to keep their war in Ukraine going while NATO’s military budget is off the charts. An economy on a war footing can only last so long before it crumbles if it isn’t taking resources and money from what they conquer.

And even if they somehow found the money, they’ve got another massive problem. Their population is collapsing. Deaths have outnumbered births for over 30 years and this war has wiped out a huge chunk of their military-age men. Replacing the near 100,000 dead and likely another 400,000 wound isn’t happening any time soon. It’d take decades to recover, if they even can. You can why they have had to resort to using North Korean troops.

What Happens When Putin’s Gone?

Putin’s 72. He’s not going to be in power forever and when he goes, who’s taking over? Russia doesn’t exactly have a history of smooth leadership transitions. After Stalin died, there was a messy power struggle. After the Soviet Union collapsed, Yeltsin’s Russia was a chaotic mess.

There’s no strongman waiting in the wings to take over and without one, Russia is likely to spiral. We could be looking at years of internal power struggles, maybe even regions like Chechnya or Siberia trying to break away. They’d have their hands full just holding the country together, let alone rebuilding a military that could challenge NATO.

So What’s Everyone Worried About?

Right now, Russia’s military is an empty shell of what we all thought it was. They couldn’t even take Ukraine when they threw their best forces at it. NATO is an entirely different level. Even without the US, it’s still far stronger than Ukraine was at the start of the war.

Russia’s economy is crumbling, their army is spent and Putin’s time is running out. Meanwhile, NATO is increasing its military spending, modernising its forces and growing stronger. The idea that Russia is some unstoppable force waiting to steamroll Europe just doesn’t add up.

TLDR: How exactly is Russia supposed to rebuild everything it’s lost plus all the Soviet-era stockpiles it’s been burning through in 10 or 20 years to become a real threat when it couldn’t even take Ukraine at full strength?

Putin’s 72. He won’t be around long enough to rebuild anything. And when he’s gone, Russia is likely start falling apart. There’s no strongman waiting to take over and keep the place together.

At this point, I just don’t see how Russia is a real military threat to Europe. Do you?